Black Friday sales set to be biggest on record with shoppers spending billions on deals
About 6 million Australians are expected to take part in Black Friday sales this year. (AAP: Dan Himbrechts)
In short:
Australians are expected to spend a record $6.8 billion over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend.
Researchers say there is a shift in mood among both consumers and retailers, with retailers reaping the rewards.
What's next?
The Australian Retailers Association's Fleur Brown says any future interest rate increases will have an impact on consumer spending.
It is shaping up to be the biggest retail event of the year, with shoppers already hunting for Black Friday deals.
Australians are expected to spend a record $6.8 billion over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend, according to research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in partnership with Roy Morgan.
That is a 4 per cent increase on last year.
Loading...Overall, about 6 million Australians are expected to take part in Black Friday sales this year. On average, they will fork out $804 each.
Women make up 3.5 million of this group, while men make up 2.5 million.
"November's become the new December when it comes to a lot of Christmas purchases, and Black Friday is driving a lot of that activity," says ARA's chief industry officer Fleur Brown.
Ms Brown says many Australians are still budget-conscious.
"There's still a cost-of-living crisis out there for many households, and they are looking to get their shopping in around that time to get some bargains for Christmas," she said.
But, with recent interest rate cuts, she says, there is a greater sense of optimism.
"We're seeing categories like clothing, toys, books, reflecting some of that early Christmas purchasing, also household items," she said.
Fleur Brown says interest rate cuts have helped boost consumer spending. (ABC News)
According to Deloitte, participation in Black Friday is also growing among Australian retailers — with 44 per cent expected to take part this year, up 3 per cent from 2024.
When is Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
Black Friday falls on Friday, 28 November 2025, while Cyber Monday is on December 1, 2025.
However, many retailers have already started advertising Black Friday promotions, weeks ahead of time.
Warwick Hall is the store manager at JB Hi-Fi in Melbourne's Chadstone Shopping Centre.
He says people are planning and researching what they want prior to the sales starting, and heading to the stores with a firm idea of what they want to purchase and how much they are willing to spend.
"They come in and they're ready to pull the trigger on what they want,"Mr Hall said.
"I think a lot of people are shopping for themselves and want to maybe reward themselves. Maybe it's some turntable and a bit of vinyl, or could be a new TV for the family room."
Warwick Hall says shoppers already know what they want before coming to the store. (ABC News: Patrick Rocca)
Consumer sentiment shows optimists outnumber pessimists
Research from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey shows consumer sentiment surged in November by 12.8 per cent.
"This is an extraordinary and somewhat surprising result," says Matthew Hassan, head of Westpac's Australian macro-forecasting.
"November marks the first 'net-positive' read on consumer sentiment in the best part of four years," he said.
It is the first time that optimists have outnumbered pessimists in years.
"This is the first time this has happened since February 2022," Mr Hassan said.
"Indeed, excluding the COVID disruptions in 2020 and 2021, this is the most positive result in seven years."
The one exception is people with a mortgage. Sentiment dipped 0.3 per cent across this sub-group.
Matthew Hassan says consumer sentiment has risen. (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)
More consumers use AI to help them shop
James Johnson, head of enterprise and commercial ANZ at Shopify, works with retailers across the country.
He says they did a survey of 2,000 consumers and 500 businesses that found many Australians were using artificial intelligence (AI) to help guide purchases.
James Johnson says more retailers are seeing AI-guided traffic to their sites. (ABC News: Patrick Rocca)
"They're using AI for product discovery to find the next best products, but also using it to find brands, or to find offers as well," he said.
"We've seen an uplift where retailers are now seeing seven times the traffic from the beginning of this year to now — directly to their sites from AI."
Shopify's Holiday Retail Report also pointed to a shift in mood among both consumers and retailers.
There has been an uptick in consumer spending on categories linked to cooking, hobbies and home entertaining.
Shopify October data shows an uptick in categories linked to cooking, hobbies and home entertaining. (ABC News: Patrick Rocca)
Mr Johnson said consumers were also looking at doing "hybrid shopping" — more than a third (38 per cent) plan to split it evenly between online and in-store this year, while 31 per cent planned to do a majority in-store, and 25 per cent plan to do a majority online.
He said 50 per cent preferred to shop online for smaller items and head in-store for larger purchases.
The research also showed almost eight in 10 retailers (78 per cent) said they felt more confident than last year.
And 76 per cent expect higher sales this holiday season, with planned Black Friday-Cyber Monday consumer spending up $98 year-on-year.
There is fear another interest rate increase will dampen consumer confidence. (ABC News: Patrick Rocca)
Will inflation keep rising and lead to rate rises rather than cuts?
The latest quarterly inflation figures released last month dashed hopes of an interest rate cut this year.
Both headline and trimmed mean inflation came in higher than the Reserve Bank was expecting.
The central bank is now expected to keep the cash rate on hold until next year, and some economists even think the next move might be up rather than down.
"We would be very concerned if there were any future interest rate increases. They would most certainly have an impact on consumer spending,"Ms Brown said.
"We would not like to see retailers go back into that period of subdued consumer spending that we've had for quite a long time now."
For the time being, retailers reap the rewards, as Australians continue to splash the cash.