Adelaide waits for COP31 decision as security preparations ramp up

Adelaide's preparations to host COP31 next year are on an "incredibly tight timeframe" as authorities brace for a long-awaited decision on hosting rights for the UN mega-summit.

Tens of thousands of representatives from across the world — including heads of state — are descending on the Brazilian city of Belém this week for the UN's annual climate conference, COP30, which kicks off on Monday.

A similar number of delegates could be coming to Adelaide this time next year for COP31.

But this is not locked in due to a long-running diplomatic stalemate between Australia and Türkiye over hosting rights.

The dispute must be resolved by the end of COP30 on November 21. 

If not, next year's summit will default to the UN's climate headquarters in Bonn, Germany.

Despite the uncertainty, the South Australian government continues to ramp up preparations for next year's event.

SA Police now has 34 officers working on COP31, up from 18 in August, according to Police Commissioner Grant Stevens.

Commissioner Stevens said retired officers had been called back to prepare for what he described as "probably the most significant government-run event in Australian history".

"We have an incredibly tight timeframe to deliver this," he told ABC Radio Adelaide last week.

"So, we are moving forward with haste but putting the necessary due diligence in order to make sure that we're getting ready for what is going to be a pretty major event for Adelaide."

Total COP attendance — comprised of delegates, observer groups and media — has fluctuated between 20,000 and 70,000 people at the past five summits.

Commissioner Stevens said regardless of attendance numbers, the UN had stipulated minimum security requirements that police would have to follow.

"We need to know that we've got it and then we need to know the scale of what we've got so we can lock in that planning process," he said.

Will Adelaide have enough accommodation?

The number of hotel beds within Adelaide's CBD ranges between 7,500 and 8,500, according to council and industry estimates.

That's well short of the 30,000-plus guests COP31 could potentially attract.

Australian Hotels Association SA branch CEO Anna Moeller said there was "absolutely no question" hotels and other forms of accommodation would be "bursting at the seams" if Adelaide hosted COP.

She said Airbnbs, holiday villages and resorts — including caravan parks — could make up the gap.

"Yes, it will be busy. Yes, it will be very difficult and inconvenient if you want to find a room. But is it worth it? Absolutely in terms of benefit to the state."

Michael Crosby, Airbnb's head of public policy for Australia and New Zealand, said the short-term rental platform would "need to see some information from the government about how many listings they would like … to see".

"I think we can expect looking at other COPs from around the world that people will have to stay a little bit further away from the centre of town," he said.

Representatives from both Airbnb and the hotels sector highlighted Adelaide's success accommodating AFL Gather Round, which attracted 54,000 visitors from interstate this year.

A spokesperson for the Department of the Premier and Cabinet (DPC), SA's lead agency for COP preparations, said a feasibility analysis confirmed Adelaide has "the infrastructure, accommodation, and logistical capacity to welcome international delegates".

"The Federal Government is actively engaging with accommodation providers in Adelaide in preparation should Australia win the bid," the spokesperson said.

What if Adelaide doesn't get COP?

Martin Haese, chair of the Premier's Climate Change Council — an advisory body to state cabinet — said "the benefit for Adelaide is negligible if we do not host this conference".

But he said it was not unprecedented for there to be a delay in choosing a host city.

"I don't think that will compromise the outcome of COP31 — it doesn't seem to have compromised the outcome of previous COPs."

Ms Moeller said some hotels had already taken placeholder bookings for COP next year.

But she rejected suggestions that Adelaide losing the event would leave hotel operators without visitors.

"There would … be waiting lists for a number of these accommodation venues," she said.

"Were COP not to go ahead, then what would happen is the venue would simply go down the waitlist and offer those rooms.

"There's a 12 month-lead time, so there's plenty of time for that to happen."

While lost bookings can be recovered, money and time already spent is another matter.

The South Australian government has allocated $8.3 million to COP31 preparations.

It's unclear how much of this had been spent to date, with DPC not answering questions from the ABC about money expended.

Adelaide City Council has also spent more than $10,000 on flights and accommodation for the Lord Mayor to lobby for Adelaide's COP bid in New York and Brazil.

The council said its other work on COP31 so far had been "incorporated within existing administration resources".

Police Commissioner Stevens said he would have "mixed feelings" if Adelaide's bid was unsuccessful.

"There's a lot of investment so far into something which is significant," he said.

"But it'll certainly lift a significant obligation off our shoulders in terms of what we need to do over the next 12 months."