Labor reshuffles its furniture as the Liberals try to save what’s left

Three hours before the shock resignation of two senior Labor ministers was made public on Thursday afternoon, ABC Radio Adelaide listeners heard something on their airwaves that, about only two years ago, would have been considered equally shocking.

"We think at the next state election in South Australia … the Liberal Party will lose everything they have in Adelaide to the Labor camp," RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras told the station.

Mr Samaras, a former Labor strategist, said he was basing his judgements on qualitative research his polling outfit had done in South Australia over "the last few weeks".

"The sentiment that we're seeing in urban settings with regards to conservative politics full stop indicates there's a very significant rejection of that form of politics," he said.

Mr Samaras is not alone.

At the start of this week, the ABC interviewed three of the state's foremost political experts — University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor Clem Macintyre, Flinders University Associate Professor Dr Rob Manwaring and Flinders University Associate Lecturer Josh Sunman — about how they saw 2026 election playing out.

None of them could foresee anything except a Labor victory, with the only question being how many seats the government would add to its parliamentary ranks.

But then, on Thursday, a political bombshell.

Bowing out

The retirements of Deputy Premier Susan Close and Treasurer Stephen Mullighan took everyone by surprise, including Premier Peter Malinauskas.

"You could have knocked me over with a feather," Mr Malinauskas said of his reaction to Mr Mullighan privately telling him weeks ago, shortly after Dr Close did the same thing.

Facing the prospect of losing two of his most senior lieutenants from cabinet, Mr Malinauskas said he did his "level best" to convince the duo that their departures were "not a good idea".

Clearly, losing a combined 22 years of frontbench experience on the eve of an election is not what he wanted — imagine if federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles decided to pull up stumps six months from an election.

Deputy Liberal leader Josh Teague tried to frame it as a "crisis at the top levels of government".

But will it do anything to halt a Labor victory march next year?

We don't know yet, but tellingly, none of the political experts have changed their minds about the result.

Emeritus Professor Macintyre said the resignations were a "slight hiccup", while Mr Sunman added: "I don't think it changes fundamentals."

Dr Manwaring thinks it might even be an "unintended boost" that allows Labor to refocus for a second term.

Making mileage

The last three years might also provide some clues as to why a Treasurer and Deputy Premier can feel comfortable walking into the political sunset just before an election.

The Malinauskas government is on track to go to next year's poll having broken two of its major promises, namely, to establish a new hydrogen industry and fix the ambulance ramping crisis. 

Despite those two failures becoming brutally evident to the public this year, the government's political position only appears to have strengthened.

In May, a rare state election poll taken by YouGov put Labor on a whopping 67 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, a 12.4 per cent swing which would leave the Liberals with just two seats in parliament.

If the Opposition can't make mileage out of two clear broken promises, what evidence is there to suggest they'll make mileage out of a cabinet reshuffle?

A young cabinet

The counterargument is that Labor now has a much less experienced frontbench which features three first-year ministers — Lucy Hood, Rhiannon Pearce and Emily Bourke — in significant portfolios.

The likely impact of Friday's cabinet reshuffle, according to Mr Sunman, is that "the government is now centralised around Malinauskas more than ever".

"There's always the risk for Labor that new ministers have teething issues and could be potential targets," he said.

Among those who could be an Opposition target is Ms Hood, who has represented the politically volatile seat of Adelaide for the past three years.

She picked up Susan Close's former portfolio of Environment and Water, putting her on the frontline of managing the state's algal bloom.

Labor is well aware of the political headache the algal bloom can — and has — caused.

One senior Labor source told the ABC earlier this week: "If people's summer holidays aren't what they're used to, that could create some statewide pressure on us that could be very problematic."

Come Sunday, the Opposition has exactly six months to make what political mileage it can out of the bloom and a less experienced Labor cabinet.

The state will then collectively find out on March 21 whether Kos Samaras was correct to forecast that the SA Liberal Party will fall off Adelaide's electoral map, like its federal counterparts.

Things can change quickly in politics, as we've learnt this week.

But time is running out.