Young men made a 'historic shift' to Trump and the right in the US election. Will it happen in Australia?

Oliver Griffiths remembers the moment, and the man, that got him interested in politics.

"My introduction to politics was in 2016 with Donald Trump," the 20-year-old said.

"I was watching TV, and he just came out, and told everybody what was going wrong.

Oliver lives in Sanctury Point on the New South Wales South Coast and is now involved in Liberal Party politics in his swing electorate of Gilmore.

He believes he's more right-wing than his parents and proudly identifies as a conservative.

Young men in other democracies have been embracing right-wing, populist leaders, a trend seen in the most recent elections in the United States, Germany, Poland and South Korea.

In Australia, some data now suggests there is an emerging gender divide amongst the country's youngest voters.

Gen Z men, born between 1996 and 2012, were more likely to vote for the Coalition compared to their female peers, Dr Chowdhury found in her analysis of a post-election study from 2022.

But the survey also found that, overall, gen Z is more progressive than previous generations; only 26 per cent backed the Coalition, with 67 per cent backing either the Greens or Labor.

"Among the younger generations, the [gender] gap is increasing, but both men and women are moving to the left," Dr Chowdhury said of the data from the Australian Election Study compiled after each poll by leading universities.

"The gender gap is kind of widening, but still in the left — not necessarily men and women going in different directions like we see in the US."

This election will see hundreds of thousands of young Australians cast their ballot for the first time, and experts say it's difficult to predict which party they'll back.

Donald Trump driving gender division

Oliver Griffiths has noticed he tends to have different views to his female friends.

He works closely with Abbey Dawson, a fellow undergraduate student, to run the University of Wollongong's Liberal Club.

The pair are advocating for the same political party, but their position on certain issues, and individuals, can be at odds.

One thing the friends don't agree on is Donald Trump.

Another issue recently where she and Oliver weren't quite on the same page was the referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

"[Oliver] was very set [on voting no], and I was a little bit more in the middle," Abbey said.

Abbey grew up in a conservative area on the New South Wales coast and was introduced to politics by her family, but says her university studies have shifted her views on some issues.

Oliver said he thought his female friends were a lot more invested in social justice.

"I think men are a lot more skeptical and black and white … if they think something feels wrong to them, they're just going to stick with the fact that it's wrong and not explore it," he said.

Social media creating gender 'echo chambers'

Social media and algorithms are increasingly shaping the political choices of younger generations, according to technology and politics experts.

Political parties are leveraging digital platforms more than ever before, working with online personalities and content creators to get their message out to younger voters.

Newer forms of media, including platforms like podcasts and YouTube, might be among the factors driving political polarisation among the genders, said Raffaele Ciriello, a digital innovation researcher at the University of Sydney.

"We've seen the advent of social media platforms, and the echo chambers it creates, it can often lead to people segregating into communities of like-minded people," he said.

"There is growing evidence now by some analysts, that podcasts like [the Joe Rogan Experience] played an influential role in the US 2024 presidential election.

"That influence saw a historic shift to the right and particularly among young male voters."

Dr Ciriello said social media had also made it easier for people to spread misinformation.

As Oliver Griffiths scrolls through his TikTok feed, there's plenty of political and right-wing content.

In Australia, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton appears to be replicating some of the strategies and content seen in the 2024 US election.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also embraced these new media platforms, going on several podcasts, particularly shows with mostly young and female audiences.

During the University of Wollongong's O-Week, Abbey Dawson and Oliver Griffiths were trying to attract new members, grabbing the attention of passing students by asking, "Do you think beer is too expensive under Albo?"

The pair had a successful first day signing up more than 20 new members but often find it challenging to attract new female members.

"I think we need to have a bit more political literacy around what the parties stand for."

The 'volatile' youth vote

While there are similarities to trends seen in the US, a similar lurch to the right in Australia is far from guaranteed.

The Australian political and social landscape is very different to those overseas, Dr Chowdhury said.

The Flinders University lecturer has been researching youth voting trends in Australia and abroad.

Dr Chowdhury described the country's youngest voters as a politically "volatile" cohort.

"They're more likely to say that they're not in line with any particular political party or any of the major parties, that kind of showcases a decline in partisanship as well," she said.

At a pub in the Illawarra, south of Sydney, the gender divide is evident.

Here, it's not a left-wing and right-wing divide, but decided versus undecided.

Jake Cooper, 22, and Pat Stapleton, 22, are unsure who they want to elect.

"I don't want to make the wrong call, but I don't know what the right call is."

Bryhanna Faulks, 26, and Ruth Adamson, 25, are almost certain who they'll choose.

"I usually vote Greens … my parents voted Greens and I think they have good morals for the people. I just really wouldn't want the Liberals in," Ruth said.

"I think I've just liked having Albanese as our prime minister. He seems quite genuine and to me that's quite appealing and feels a bit safer," Bryhanna added.

Pat Stapleton said he'll have to ask around and do research before making up his mind .

"We'll care about it when we feel like it's about us [young people]," he said.

Dr Chowdhury said her "crystal ball" was "fuzzy" for this upcoming election.

"It'll be quite interesting to see how they respond to an economic crisis, a hardship moment for the entire country, and whether that accentuates the gender divide."