Whyalla, ramping and a looming federal election all key issues facing the major parties in SA

With a state election just over 13 months away, South Australia's politicians are heading into a critical year.

Premier Peter Malinauskas returns to state parliament today with a bigger majority than he had at the start of 2024, buoyed by victories in two by-elections, while Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia will be hoping for a fresh start after a difficult year.

As state parliament returns today for the first sitting week of the year, here are four issues confronting the major parties in 2025.

Whyalla's future in focus

The Premier has made no secret about his concern for the Whyalla steelworks.

The embattled industrial plant was plagued by problems through much of 2024, including two separate months-long blast furnace shutdowns that halted steel production and cost operator GFG Alliance millions.

The blast furnace restarted in early January but questions about its financial viability persist.

The state government also sought specialist financial advice last year in case the steelworks become insolvent.

Asked on Monday about the state government's agenda in 2025, Mr Malinauskas mentioned the steelworks first.

"Notwithstanding the good news about the blast furnace being back up and running and steel production now occurring at the steelworks, we still see the situation being arguably precarious," he said.

"This is a challenge that I think will continue to demand the attention and effort of government to the extent that we can put effort in, considering it's not a publicly-owned asset."

An ongoing industrial crisis before an election could cause headaches for Labor, as the future of the steelworks is closely connected to the government's plans for a $593 million hydrogen power plant in Whyalla.

The government hopes the yet-to-be constructed plant will supply green hydrogen to the steelworks so it can decarbonise its carbon-intensive operations.

But there are lingering questions over whether the $593 million price tag for the hydrogen plant and generator will rise due to inflation — and whether GFG Alliance is able to support a green transformation of its operations.

Energy and Mining Minister Tom Koutsantonis said GFG Alliance CEO and chair Sanjeev Gupta were currently "pretty much at the centre of our hydrogen ambitions".

"The problem we have is twofold: we're seeing escalation costs across the country, and there's Mr Sanjeev Gupta and the problems he's facing," he told ABC Radio Adelaide.

"For us, the questions that we're looking at is right now the jobs that are important are the ones that we've got right now in Whyalla.

But while Mr Koutsantonis said the hydrogen plant would help drive the decarbonisation of steel, he expressed doubts about Mr Gupta's role in that future.

"I'm not very confident given past practice," Mr Koutsantonis said in a subsequent interview on Tuesday morning.

"This is the hard part. Mr Gupta needs to invest. We've put our capital in, we've got our capital waiting.

"Lots of promises have been made, not much has been delivered."

The government has indicated it will announce its hydrogen project costings in the first half of 2025.

Health system issues persist

Ambulance ramping remains the Malinauskas government's "point of greatest vulnerability", according to University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of politics, Clem Macintyre.

Labor's 2022 election campaign focused heavily on health spending and a promise to "fix the ramping crisis", but nearly three years on, the government is still grappling with major challenges across the hospital system.

Patients spent a record 5,539 hours ramped in ambulances outside public hospitals in July 2024 — a situation Health Minister Chris Picton described at the time as "incredibly serious".

"But best efforts so far have not really taken it off the front pages."

Labor is quick to point out that ambulance response times have improved since it came to government.

In December last year, 70.8 per cent of priority one ambulance call-outs were met within the designated eight minutes response time, up from 59.4 per cent in March 2022, according to SA Health data.

The number of Priority 2 call-outs — requiring an ambulance within 16 minutes — met on time has also improved from 40.9 per cent to 61.9 per cent over the same time frame.

Treasurer Stephen Mullighan announced an extra $2.5 billion in health spending at the last state budget, with the government now committed to building more than 600 new hospital beds.

But Flinders University Associate Professor Dr Rob Manwaring said the government's health infrastructure program would take time to rollout and that ramping was "an ongoing issue".

"This is a really perennial election issue, not just in South Australia," he said.

"Where we are in the electoral cycle, though, is you would start needing to see Labor really try and bed down getting on top of this.

The opposition is poised to seize on any government missteps, with shadow health spokesperson Ashton Hurn now back in parliament after maternity leave.

"There's no doubt the Liberals will go very hard on it [ramping]," Professor Macintyre said.

"And Ashton Hurn is probably one of the few shadow ministers, I think, that can really take it up to the Labor government."

Federal election looms

While South Australia does not have a swag of marginal federal seats like other states, the result of this year's federal election will have implications at a state level.

If the Coalition and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton win, it would open a new dynamic in federal-state relations — and one that's not necessarily favourable for the Malinauskas government, according to Dr Manwaring.

"If the Albanese Government continues, then I think … that kind of necessarily helps the Malinauskas government … because generally speaking Labor can talk to Labor, and they have the capacity to support and work with each other."

The Malinauskas government has reached a number of funding agreements with the federal government, including a $2.29 billion national skills agreement and, more recently, a five per cent boost to Commonwealth funding for South Australian schools.

"If it does become a Dutton-led government, that does become more problematic for the Malinauskas government about how they would seek to work together," Dr Manwaring said.

He said Mr Dutton's plan to build a state-owned nuclear power station in Port Augusta would be a particularly thorny issue for federal-state relations.

Meanwhile, the prospect of a Labor or Coalition-led minority government could bring its own complications for state politics, according to Professor Macintyre.

"Because we're just not going to be sure of the nature of the legislative program that is likely to be coming and what level of support, say, a Labor government will be able to offer to states in the run up to a state election in March of 2026."

A Mount Gambier by-election could be on the cards

Last September, a jury found Independent Mount Gambier MP Troy Bell guilty of 20 counts of theft and five counts of dishonest dealing with documents.

Mr Bell has appealed the verdict, but a by-election for his South East seat could become a big political storyline in 2025.

An individual charged with one count of basic theft faces a maximum penalty of 10 years' imprisonment, while an aggravated offence of dishonest dealings with documents carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in jail.

If Mr Bell is expelled from parliament, it would trigger a by-election for his seat of Mount Gambier which he has held since 2014.

The South Australian Liberal Party will be keen to win the seat back after losing two by-elections last year in the eastern suburbs seat of Dunstan and the southern suburbs seat of Black respectively.

The losses, both in seats held by former leaders, reduced the Liberal Party's Lower House caucus from 15 to 13 members — well below Labor's 28 MPs.

The Liberal Party has only held Mount Gambier for three years since 2002, but Professor Macintyre said the Liberal Party would be favoured in any by-election for the seat.

"Mount Gambier gives the Liberals an opportunity if there is a by-election … to try and reset the clock a bit after the two disastrous by-election losses we've seen so far in this parliament," he said.

"But that wouldn't suggest they're making the gains they need in order to win government."